Redistricting 2012: A Preview

Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics offered up potential redistricting scenerios in 2012 within five of the six Midwest Democracy Network states using census estimates and Dave Bradlee’s redistricting application. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune,

Illinois: Illinois loses a seat. With uniform control of the legislature and governorship, Democrats are free to take aim at the 11-8 Republican delegation. They’ll be somewhat limited in what they can do given slow growth in Chicago and the need to draw four minority-majority districts there, but you can bet the district that is eliminated will be Republican (probably the 17th) and that at least one suburban district will be drawn unfavorably for Republicans (probably the 10th or the 6th).

According to Patch.com, chairman of the redistricting committee for the Illinois League of Women Voters Kathy Nesburg said the majority party uses redistricting as a way to protect incumbents and weaken districts held by the minority party.

“With the elections over we know now how things will proceed,” Nesburg said. “The Democrats control Springfield, so they will draw the lines to give their party the advantage.”

Indiana: This is another under-the-radar Democratic gerrymander from 2000 that will probably be undone. Republicans will surely shore up the newly-won 8th and 9th districts, and will probably look to weaken Joe Donnelly’s district, perhaps by moving South Bend into the 1st. If Republicans are feeling overly-ambitious, the numbers actually work out to create a majority-minority district by combining Gary with Indianapolis through a thin strip up I-65, leaving a probable 8-1 Republican delegation in the state, but Governor Daniels doesn’t sound like he’d back such a plan.

Michigan: Michigan loses a seat. Republicans could play it safe and eliminate one of their own districts. The problem is that, even if they wanted to do this, the population losses are occurring in Democratic districts. My guess is that Gary Peters’ district is dismembered, with the Democratic parts going into the 12th District (which in turn will be losing constituents to the 13th and 14th) and the Republican parts used to shore up the 11th and 8th.

Minnesota: Right now it is neck-in-neck between Minnesota and Missouri for the 435th district, with Minnesota holding the short straw. With a Democratic Governor and Republican legislature, the Republicans will probably find themselves unable to complete their longstanding goal of combining Minneapolis and St. Paul into one district. If the governor and legislature can’t agree, a judicial panel will draw the map. The 4-4 split between the parties makes it hard to predict a loser, especially since the Republican districts have been growing sharply and 3 of the 4 Democratic districts lost population. A panel would probably opt to draw a Republican and Democrat into an evenly-balanced district.

Ohio - Ohio loses two districts. Republicans are talking about using their control of the redistricting process to eliminate both a Republican and a Democrat, and then shoring up their remaining seats. The Democratic 13th was spared in 2002 because then-Governor Taft didn’t want Sherrod Brown challenging him. Betty Sutton isn’t as formidable a politician, and is a likely candidate for “odd-member out” this time. Republicans could conceivably extend the 9th over into Cuyahoga County and combine it with the 10th, and could even extend the black-majority 11th down through minority precincts in Akron and over into Youngstown, in a bid for at 14-2 Republican delegation. But that would leave them spread pretty thin. Instead, look for freshman Republicans in the 6th and 18th to find their districts combined.

The magnitude of the Republican gains at the statehouse level was stunning, Tim Storey, an elections expert at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

“It looks like they are close to a 700-seat pickup, far beyond what they did in 1994,” Storey told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. “It’s going to be the most Republican legislators in state legislatures since 1928.”

To learn more about the impact November’s election results will have on the upcoming redistricting process, click here.